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Overunity Machines Forum



I see an economic diasater coming...

Started by the_big_m_in_ok, September 03, 2009, 01:05:30 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 11 Guests are viewing this topic.

Do you think the American economy will ever improve?

Yes, definitely
Possibly, in the long run
No, it will worsen
Undecided

triffid

Here is a paragraph from an article on what we could expect from a double dip
recession on JOBS:2. Unemployment

Unemployment would move back above 10% quickly. In the 1982 recession, the jobless rate was over 10% for 20 consecutive months and reached 10.8% for two months. During this period, the manufacturing base had not been destroyed. The economy is now arguably worse than it was in 1982. Many Americans who worked in manufacturing before the recession cannot be retrained, and the factories where they worked will not be reopened. Many companies have recently adopted the policy that they will keep as much of their work-force temporary for as long as possible. This keeps the cost of benefits low and allows firms to fire people quickly and without severance. A hiring strike by American businesses would contribute to putting 200,000 to 300,000 people out of work per month. At the peak of the recession that just ended, there were nearly six job seekers for every open job, according to the Labor Department. The job market could return to that point.

triffid

I am reminded that if you have a job you have no recession.If your job has not left you.You don't leave your job.During the recession of 1982 I was gainfully employed.Our hours went down to less than 40 (39.9)a week so I had no overtime for a couple of years but it was not a major concern.Most of the recessions in my life I did not even notice due to being gainfully employed.Since 1975 I have lived through 3 or 4. triffid

triffid

What the stock market could look like in a double dip recession.If the performance of the equity markets in 2008 and early 2009 is any indication, the S&P 500 would drop from its current level of about 1,100 to a low of 676, which it hit in March 2009. This would take trillions of dollars off business balance sheets and from consumer retirement and brokerage accounts. Businesses would become less likely to invest in new plants, equipment and services. For individuals, many would see a large part of their retirement disappear. That would cause a huge drop in consumer spending as people attempt to preserve cash, perpetuating further drops in the stock market

triffid

What this tells me is to hang on to my cash.Don't buy stocks right now.Cash is still king until the government makes it 100%worthless(When???).How would I know?

triffid

The same article tells us what would happen to banking in case of a double dip recession.The effect on most of the financial services industry would be catastrophic, particularly at the regional and community bank level where a number of home and commercial real estate loans are held. The FDIC would be forced to borrow money from the Treasury to cover bank closings. The number of failed banks could reach the level of the savings and loan crisis during which over 700 banks and mortgage lenders were shuttered